The December report on November home sales is similar to the last few months, low sales volume and slight price decreases.

For better or worse, here is my outlook for Polk County real estate in 2012.  To be repeatingly redundant, our future turns on jobs — especially new job creation. People who have jobs are confident about their futures.  Stable employment drives housing demand.  Polk County’s unemployment rate decreased from 13.4% in November 2010 to 11% in November 2011, BUT the actual number of jobs in that time period also decreased by about 300.  So while the rate decreased, the number of available jobs also decreased — not the best formula for a positive outlook.

The best things going for us in Polk County right now are the facts that prices are appearing to stabilize, and mortgage rates continue to be low. Yes, there are likely to be more foreclosures in the next months, but they should be absorbed without much disruption to the larger picture.

I do believe now is a very good time to buy a home. If you are ready to look for the right home and the right price, contact me and we’ll get to work.

I have been working mostly with buyers recently.  I have been helping buyers find the right home for them and helping them negotiate the best terms and managing the process.

I think many people are not aware of is how much the time can vary from initial offer to final closing.  Recently, I had one  transaction that only took 7 or 8 days from the initial offer until the final closing.  In the second case, the initial offer has been made, and, if it goes through, may not close until next March.   In the first case, the buyer had everything in place and needed to move fairly quickly.  The second case is a short sale, a lot of time just waiting for the institution holding the mortgage to react, then negotiating back and forth, each step involves a lot of wait time.

This illustrates why you need to deal with an experienced Realtor, whether buying or selling.  One who will keep you fully informed, not just on the current status, but also what to expect going forward.

The number of existing homes sold was 336, down from 395 in August and about the same as last year, 331.  The “news” was the median price was significantly up, for the first time since  the recession started.  I agree with the reasons given in the article, that there are fewer foreclosures on the market.  I monitor the market closely, as I have clients looking for investment property.  It’s likely true that the number of foreclosed houses on the market should increase as lenders resolve the “robo-signing” issue.  For the typical homeowner, the market value of their home did not go up.  Probably the best that can be said is that it may not have decreased significantly in the past month.

In my view, we are still bumping along the bottom.  A leading indicator and predictor of near-term home purchases (wthin the next two  months) is the “Purchase Index”, compiled by the Mortgage Banker’s Association. This index is currently at its lowest level since 1996.

I do expected the market to improve starting in the early part of 2012.  A lot of political attention is being paid to the housing problem, with so many people ‘underwater’ on their mortgages, and especially with 2012 an election year.  Sometimes legislative actions mess things up more, though. If the market is righting itself with the help it has had, it might be prudent to leave well enough alone.

However, the FHA might have something in its toolkit that could be beneficial.  From a recent Washington Post article,  ”…. (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) told the caucus that some relief could come next week when the Federal Housing Finance Agency announces new plans to try to enable homeowners who are under water to refinance.”  As long as this strategy isn’t as overly burdened with the rules that HAMP and HAFA endured, which rendered them ineffective, a way to re-finance underwater mortgages that makes sense for both the lender and the homeowner would be welcome.

All of this can have an impact on Polk County.  Check back often as I will try to keep you informed of major events.

I have been closely involved in real estate sales for a long time, both residential and commercial.  Contact me to see if I can help you, whether buying or selling.

I have many tools and techniques available to possibly help you, whether buying or selling.  To find out more, email or call me.

A total of 332 existing homes were sold in Polk in July, compared to 389 in June.

This was suppose to be the year of the “short sale”, with so many homeowners behind in payments and owing more on the mortgage than the home will sell for.  I posted considerable information on “short sales” back in September 2010.  In theory, for underwater mortgages, short sales should benefit the mortgage holder, they would get as much or more than they would get after foreclosure and they avoid the time and cost of foreclosure.  But it remains difficult and time consuming to get the mortgage holder’s approval.  I personally know of  good short sales offers that were rejected by the mortgage holder.  In some cases, the final amount the mortgage holder received after foreclosure was far less than the short sale offer, plus they had the cost of foreclosure and months of delay.

On the surface, this doesn’t make sense.  I can think of a couple of reasons the mortgage holders don’t like short sales.  For one thing, they have to handle it in house. Usually, they are understaffed and there has been a lengthy learning curve for staff hired for this job. Foreclosure, on the other hand, is out-sourced to attorneys and other specialists.

A number of scams have emerged, as well — what a surprise! Mortgage holders are very suspicious of low-ball offers because they suspect flipping, in which case they lose. In addition, mortgage holders want buyers to be arm’s length from the seller — they tend not to like it if the house  ends up back in the hands of the defaulting party through devious means.

Knowing that there is a potential for a scam adds to the reluctance of the major mortgage holders to approve short sales.

With the market like it is today, if you are thinking about buying or selling real estate, and not already working with a Realtor, contact me.  I look forward to hearing from you.

I will describe an actual recent experience.  Some details will be left out to protect the privacy of those involved.

Near the end of June, I listed a property in the Tampa area.  The client was an institution that I had done business with previously and they wanted a fairly quick sale.  Considerable thought was given to the listing price, the house was older, in fair condition, however,  it was in a wonderful neighborhood of generally much larger and nicer homes.  Homes in this neighborhood seldom come on the market.  Consideration was given to the value of the lot, what it might be worth if the home was razed and a new, much larger home built in its place.  Also, its value as a home to live in, possibly with some upgrades.

The listing price was set at $199,000.

I anticipated considerable interest in this property, so I entered special marketing information in the MLS system that all Realtors use to view information about the property.   I asked them to submit their highest and best offer by a deadline, which was about 2 weeks after the it went on the market.  What is implied is that the owner will probably accept what they see as the best offer within a day or two after the deadline.  None of the offer, counter offer, re-offer that often occurs.

The results were astounding.  We received 18 offers.  All but one was above the listing price.  The owner chose a cash offer of $300,000, which was more than $100,000 above the listed price.  And it closed within 5 weeks  from the time it went on the market.   It would have closed sooner but there was a few days delay due to a paper work snafu.

So, what can be learned from this successful case history?

The law of supply and demand is still in effect.

The right Realtor will develop the best marketing plan for a given property and the needs of seller.   I have many tools and techniques available to possibly help you, whether buying or selling.

According to the article, a total of 382 homes were sold in June, down 17 from May.  Inventory is about the same, about 9 months at June’s sales rate.  The median price is in about the same range as it has been, $92,600.  To read the full article, click here.

I am current involved in a transaction in which, within 10 days from the day I listed the property, 18 offers were submitted.  The sale price will be well-above list price.  I plan to provide more details when the sale concludes, which is scheduled for Monday, July 25. 

The important message is that even in this environment, demand can be very high for the right property, in the right location, at the right price, with the right marketing.  Economics 101: the price rises when there is high demand for a scarce commodity.   For everyone out there trying to sell, this is a case study.

Check back soon and often.

While the article reports an estimated 58% of the sales were short sales or foreclosures, my sense is that is changing, that fewer distressed properties are coming on the market, which would be good.  Keep in mind the reported sales are final closing of contracts written some time earlier, in the case of short sales, perhaps initiated several months ago.   The slow down in foreclosures coming on the market could be a temporary situation, a result of delays in paperwork and legal matters in executing foreclosures.  We’ll see.

The health of our real estate market depends on employment.  The Ledger, June 24^th edition headline, “LRMC Laying Off 133”.  From another article in The Ledger, about unemployment claims:

“There were 2,642 initial claims to receive unemployment insurance benefits in Polk County last month, a drop of about 500 from May 2010 but up by a couple hundred since April.

 May’s unemployment claims figure “is very high by historical standards and really needs to be below 2,000 a month before the local labor market will be able to make any real progress,” said Gordon Kettle, an economic consultant to Polk government and professor at Polk State College.”

Whether buying or selling, it is more critical than ever to work with an experience real estate agent.  I will match my ability with anyone to get results for my clients, either buying or selling in this difficult environment.  It’s important to remember, however, that opportunities abound.

The median sales price was $93,300.   The median price varies from month to month, but overall, I believe the high end price are still coming down some and the low end is flat or rising a little.  There seems to be more competition among buyers for the available pool of cheap, distressed homes.  It is estimated that 65% of sales involved distressed properties.

April’s numbers were disappointing.  Sales totaled 434, compared to the 505 in March.  The median sales price was also down, at $90,500.

Here is a piece of good news.  From an article in The St. Petersburg Times:

“JP Morgan Chase has a deal for some homeowners behind on their payments: If they’ll accept a quick sale of their home, the bank will give them $10,000 to $20,000 and forgive what it loses on the mortgage.

Homeowners get the cash after the home is purchased in a short sale, meaning the buyer pays less than what the bank is owed.”

To see the full article and more details, click here.

Apparently this only applies to mortgages owned by Chase, but I would hope the other  major mortgage holding institutions would adopt a similar practices.  I believe it a common sense approach that would help everyone.

Another positive factor is that foreign buyers are entering the market to a significant degree.  This is partially due to the drop in the dollar, the drop in prices in the our market, and the in housing prices in many other countries.  To read a recent WSJ article on the subject, click here.

Polk County recorded 382 existing home sales in February, compared to 337 in January.   As we expected, the median sale price dropped and was only $83,000.  Inventory of Polk County homes for sale is still high with about 10 months worth of supply. For the full story in The Ledger, click here.

According to the article, about 70% of Polk sales involved foreclosures or short sales, or otherwise distressed properties. In my Coldwell Banker office, most transactions in January were cash, indicating investment buying, and a whopping 85% were short sale or bank-owned properties.

With current market conditions, the services of an experienced Realtor are more important than ever.  If  buying or selling real estate is important to you right now, contact me. I can help.